Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 13.956650 15.969303 18.139617 20.650130 23.470250 26.536333 30.118171
2025-02-23 10.831937 13.521905 16.650338 20.542227 25.237626 30.702225 37.525186
2025-03-02 9.393767 12.399170 16.066423 20.841754 26.863581 34.170117 43.667737
2025-03-09 8.173782 11.346020 15.387369 20.867964 28.053927 37.096206 49.267594
2025-03-16 7.155572 10.385544 14.659712 20.665460 28.810646 39.385944 54.051756
2025-03-23 6.461194 9.764217 14.287271 20.847885 30.016878 42.255090 59.677080
2025-03-30 6.036550 9.460624 14.295699 21.510384 31.865377 46.027177 66.655179
2025-04-06 5.425807 8.816206 13.751294 21.323016 32.476547 48.095434 71.355781
2025-04-13 4.670909 7.874396 12.683418 20.271959 31.745640 48.196616 73.241786
2025-04-20 4.390290 7.637335 12.640984 20.726132 33.221284 51.493617 79.826045
2025-04-27 4.125646 7.397377 12.567349 21.112703 34.596898 54.687094 86.381209
2025-05-04 3.778334 6.986341 12.186372 20.980117 35.149324 56.657726 91.178221
2025-05-11 3.425515 6.539897 11.723123 20.697417 35.470914 58.328111 95.661588
2025-05-18 3.175584 6.249314 11.493860 20.777498 36.369623 60.925164 101.689477
2025-05-25 2.979334 6.034160 11.370599 21.015670 37.521869 63.950880 108.493252
2025-06-01 2.770535 5.775185 11.148712 21.063805 38.350195 66.483621 114.607476
2025-06-08 2.542739 5.457486 10.795504 20.852323 38.715261 68.264458 119.562349
2025-06-15 2.393197 5.276787 10.674261 21.038704 39.763015 71.198665 126.506268
2025-06-22 2.319823 5.240624 10.815922 21.705811 41.679023 75.654820 136.143893
2025-06-29 2.143279 4.976853 10.506758 21.517192 42.056813 77.513085 141.477366
2025-07-06 1.880833 4.506905 9.762696 20.457384 40.793479 76.483134 141.829278
2025-07-13 1.810551 4.442666 9.811404 20.915334 42.333329 80.386392 150.829580
2025-07-20 1.737302 4.364859 9.826166 21.305076 43.760416 84.141489 159.704430